Long Term Predictions

In some way these are kind of cop-out predictions because they have no expiration date.  At any point in the future, I can claim that “they just haven’t been proved right yet” (ie as opposed to “they have been proved wrong”).  On the same principle, predictions with no defined end date are necessarily un-tradable.  So perhaps my goal for this page is as a repository for predictions that will move to a defined time-frame prediction set at some point in the future.  Or that’s my story, anyhow

• The role of ‘virtual economist’ (a paid economist / central banker for a virtual world) will become a legitimate (and highly compensated?) position.
• The distinction between ‘virtual economist’ and ‘real world economist’ (at least as far as central banking goes) will merge.  Kind of like how in the 90′s all kinds of companies were known as Something.com but by the mid-2000′s every business has a website, so company names like Something.com (as opposed to just Something Inc.) are now an anachronism.
• Real economies will take on traits of virtual economies (multiple-residency/citizenship, membership dues, low cost migration, competition, notion of customer centrism towards citizens/subscribers, etc)
• Virtual economies will take on traits of real economies (land ownership, real world embassies/diplomatic relations, tax haven status, crime, defense, etc)
• ‘Real’ and ‘virtual’ world economies will be increasingly competitive.  The will compete for labor, capital, land, entrepreneurs, innovation, etc.
• Competition from virtual worlds will force real worlds to become more responsive to citizens/residents, to treat them as customers to be retained as opposed to subjects to be ruled.
• As with virtual worlds, people will maintain memberships (citizenship/residencies) in ‘real world’ countries to the extent that they provide a particular value to that individual.  Allegiance will be driven by value provided rather than place of birth.
• People will hold an increasing number of ‘memberships’ in real/virtual worlds.  Today, most people are citizens of exactly one country for their whole lives, and often never physically leave that country.  In the future, people will interact in various ways in a much greater number of real/virtual worlds.
• Proliferation and specialization among virtual worlds will be mirrored in fragmentation and specialization among nation-states.
• Distinctions between real and virtual economies will eventually vanish entirely.